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McArthur forecast to retain Orkney seat

McArthur forecast to retain Orkney seat

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Liam McArthur is forecast to retain the Orkney seat, and an islands councillor looks bound for Holyrood, according to pollsters.

This Friday will see results roll in for the Scottish Parliamentary Elections, with the ballot count in Orkney set to begin at 9am at the Pickaquoy Centre. 

A final pre-election poll by Yougov predicts that Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate Liam McArthur will retain the Orkney constituency seat with 67 per cent of the vote share. 

Yougov polling suggests a landslide vote of 67 per cent in favour of Liam McArthur in Orkney.

It also forecasts a spread of two seat each for the Scottish Greens and Reform UK in the Highlands and Islands regional list, plus one seat each for the SNP, Scottish Labour, and the Scottish Conservatives.

This would mean a new job at Holyrood for Kirkwall West and Orphir councillor Kristopher Leask, who is ranked second on the Scottish Greens list for the Highlands and Islands. 

It would also mean that Orphir’s Jamie Halcro Johnston would lose his seat as an MSP for the Highlands and Islands, after serving for nine years.

No official exit poll has been commissioned for this election, so results may well vary from those of the Yougov poll taken before election day. 

Looking closer at the Orkney prediction, Yougov suggests that the SNP’s Robert Leslie will come second with a 20 per cent vote share. It predicts Reform UK’s John Coupland will take eight per cent, followed by three per cent for Scottish Labour’s Mike Macleod, and two per cent for Scottish Conservative candidate Jamie Halcro Johnston. 

However, an aggregate poll released by Ballotbox Scotland, which averages a number of results forecast by various pollsters paints a different picture. 

An aggregate of pre-election polling by Ballotbox Scotland suggests a much closer race between the SNP and Reform UK candidates in Orkney.

It suggests a close race for second place between the SNP and Reform UK candidates, with the former taking 15.3 per cent of the vote and the latter taking 15.5 per cent. 

Nevertheless, this aggregate still predicts a landslide win for Mr McArthur, with 66.8 per cent of the vote. 

Follow our coverage of the election results in Orkney throughout the day, here and on our social media.